The ‘Keys to the White House’ are being handed out, with predictions suggesting that President Biden currently maintains a slight advantage in a hypothetical 2024 showdown against former President Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, an election expert renowned for accurately predicting nearly every presidential race since 1984, has devised a formula utilized for forecasting upcoming presidential elections. Often, his formula proves to be spot-on.
Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” comprises 13 true or false questions that he contends provide a robust indication of who will emerge victorious on the fall ballot.
Each question is posed regarding the two competing nominees; if answered “true,” they are awarded a “key,” while a “false” response grants the point to their opponent.
So far, Biden has secured five of the “keys,” while Trump managed to acquire around three, Lichtman disclosed to MarketWatch.
This leaves five keys still undecided, providing ample opportunity for Trump to gain a lead before November.
According to American University, where Lichtman teaches, the “keys” are categorized as: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
Biden’s status as the incumbent earns him an automatic point, corresponding to key number 3.
Although Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fulfilled the requirements to be listed on the Utah presidential election ballot, Biden was awarded another “key” for not facing any notable third-party or independent primary challenge.
The Democrat also received “keys” for achieving “real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms,” along with enacting policy changes during his presidency.
However, Trump clinched key number one, awarded to the political party whose majority dominates the House of Representatives – a status currently held by the GOP.
Portraying Biden as lacking charisma, Lichtman attributed the 12th key to Trump, potentially awarding him another point if Biden does not achieve “a major success in foreign or military affairs.”
Lichtman accurately forecasted Trump’s victory in the 2016 election and later predicted that Biden would win the 2020 presidential election against Trump.
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